2022 Oklahoma State Season Preview

Offseason moves, Keys to the Season, Schedule Breakdown and Projections, and Season Opener Preview

2021 Recap

Last season for the Pokes was filled with ups and downs. For a season with so many great things to remember, the first three games of the season are easily forgotten. All three of the non-conference contests could have easily gone the other way: 

A Missouri State game that was within a touchdown, an in-state matchup with Tulsa which they only won by 5, and the lowest margin of victory of the season, a one point win against an underachieving Boise State team that required a mistake by the officials that took the winning touchdown off the board and a botched 36-yd Boise State field goal attempt to eek out the win. 

The near-stumble out of the gate was followed by three solid wins over Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas. These confidence instilling wins and the shiny 6-0 record, made the heartbreak of the Iowa State loss almost too much to bear. 

To the team’s credit, they did not let the loss phase them. They ripped off four dominating performances, with an average margin of victory of 35.5 points and holding opponents to just 5.75 points per game. The Cowboys were once again planted firmly in the national spotlight heading into the Bedlam game. 

This game deserves a whole post to itself. The cowboys exercised many demons in this game, fought like hell and won in amazing fashion.

That led to the Big 12 championship game. The pokes came up excruciatingly short on the final play of the game, dashing the cowboys hopes for a Big 12 championship and an outside chance at the playoff. 

The Fiesta Bowl victory over Notre Dame was a great way to end the season. The victory over a big brand like Notre Dame garnered the respect this team deserved and solidified this season as a mirror season to the 2011 team, bookending an awesome decade in Oklahoma State football. 

The Offseason

Since that bowl game, the fanbase of Oklahoma State has lived and died on every notable offseason transfer, acquisition, and hire announcement they could get their hands on. Lets break it down.

Like a kid that has to eat his vegetables before dessert, the bad news comes first. 

The Cons:

The most notable loss is not a player, but the defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. He took the DC position at the other OSU in Columbus.

A ruthless combination of graduation, the NFL, and the transfer portal decimated our defensive staff. Graduation took S Kolby Harvell-Peel. The NFL claimed four; both starting linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez and Devin Harper and defensive backs CB Christian Holmes and S Tre Sterling. The transfer portal was not kind either, with CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse opting for “greener pastures” with the LSU Tigers and S Tanner McCalister following Jim Knowles to Ohio State.

The defense loses its top four leading tacklers. Linebackers Mason Cobb and Xavier Benson will step in and try to shoulder this load. These two are likely to be passable but not exceptional. Additionally, the linebacker depth chart is thinner than any other position. Things could get ugly if either one of these guys go down with injury or do not meet expectations. 

On offense, the losses of leading rusher RB Jaylen Warren and leading receiver WR Tay Martin will prove costly. Together they combined for 2,262 yards on the season, 39% of the offensive production. That will not be easily replaced.

The transfer portal grabbed both of the backup quarterbacks, Shane Illingworth and Ethan Bullock, with any experience, leaving coach’s son Gunnar Gundy number two on the depth chart. Spencer has missed time in all three of the seasons he has played. Without a reliable backup, the offense will likely stall if the injury bug bites Sanders again.

Now for the Brightside.

The Pros:

Somehow, one of the most lethal defensive fronts in college football, ranking 3rd in the nation in sacks per game and 4th in opponent rushing yards per game, returning 5 (yes you read that right) starters or key players on the four man front. Names such as Collin Oliver, Brendon Evers, Tyler Lacy, Brock Martin, and Sione Asi should have the fanbase breathing a deep sigh of relief knowing that the defense they fell in love with a year ago will remain a force to be reckoned with. And if five returning studs in the defensive trenches is not enough to calm nerves, remember that this season will see the triumphant return of Trace Ford coming back from injury. 

The signing of Derek Mason to the DC job will likely end up as another home run hire for Athletic Director Chad Weiburg. The fact that Oklahoma State is poaching talent from the SEC is a great sign for the direction of the program. Derek Mason has a reputation as an aggressive-minded play caller, which Oklahoma State fans grew accustomed to seeing under Knowles’ reign.

Despite the losses, the defensive back crew will feature some names that fans will recognize from big play moments last season. S Jason Taylor III, CB Korie Black, CB Jabbar Muhammed, and S Thomas Harper will return for the secondary. Fans should keep an eye on the highly touted redshirt freshman S Kendal Daniels making his debut for the Cowboys. The coaching staff seem to be very pleased with what they have seen from Daniels up to this point, earning him the starting spot in week 1. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Spencer Sanders returning for his senior season is a welcome sight. He has shown improvement year after year. He is a leader on this team and will have his offense laser focused all season. 

The running back situation remains to be seen. Dominic Richardson emerges as the frontrunner for week 1, winning the starting job over Jaden Nixon, Texas A&M Transfer Deondre Jackson, and newcomer Ollie Gordon. Coach Gundy and OC Casey Dunn will spend the non conference schedule rotating these four guys in and hopefully landing on a guy to lead the team into Big 12 play. Although, if none show separation, a committee approach will suffice as all four will be capable players. 

The wide receiver room is, in a word, deep. Seven receivers with meaningful playing time last year return, highlighted by Brennen Presley, Jaden Bray, John Paul Richardson, and Rashod Owens. All eyes will be on Freshman Talyn Shettron. He is not expected to start but he will definitely see some snaps and targets in non conference games. Coach Gundy will want to bring him along slowly this season in hopes of transforming him into the next great wide receiver to grace Stillwater although that is not likely to materialize this season.

Keys to 2022

Secondary

The biggest key to the season is the play of the brand new secondary. Football is a team game but cornerbacks and safeties have more of an impact on winning and losing than any other position on the field besides the quarterback. It is a position where one busted coverage against a capable quarterback means giving up a touchdown. Last year, close games fell our way largely because our veteran secondary was dependable. They made the right play every time and that confidence is what allowed Jim Knowles to get creative up front. No matter how much talent a team has on the defensive line, talented quarterbacks are going to find open receivers before the best pass rushers can lay a finger on him. If Derek Mason cannot depend on the secondary to defend the high powered passing offenses in the Big 12, dialing up pressure on the quarterback becomes increasingly risky. The coaching staff has done as good of a job reloading in the secondary as anyone could have expected. But the looming question remains, will it be enough?

Spencer Sanders

When Sanders looks around at the locker room this year, he will notice that the defense is no longer going to save the day every week. He will see a group of running backs and receivers full of talented athletes that are unproven on the field. He will see there is no sure-fire special connection on the outside to chunk the ball to when a play collapses. He can hope Jaden Bray, Rashod Owens, Brennen Presley, or another one of the laundry list of receivers will step up into this role by the time conference play rolls around, but this type of receiver is a rarity that has become the norm in recent history for the Pokes. Sanders will have to be rock solid week in a week out for the cowboys to fulfill their potential. He has steadily improved every year and this year should be no different. The fourth year starter will be more comfortable with the coaching staff and the offensive system than we have ever seen him. Look for Sanders to make a run at First Team Big 12 Honors. 

The Schedule

The Big 12 stacks up relatively well for the Cowboys this season. Rebuilding programs such as Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas, and West Virginia will likely take insignificant steps forward or back this season. The toughest of these games will come on the road at TCU.

The upper end of the Big 12 schedule is not favorable for Oklahoma State. Three of the toughest opponents will be on the road at Baylor, Kansas State, and OU. Ok State will likely be underdogs in all of these games and will be lucky to get through them all unscathed. 

The Baylor game will be the first real test in Week 5. Luckily, a bye in Week 4 will give Coach Gundy and crew an extra week to prepare. Combine that with the pain of the Big 12 championship loss, and the Bears better be ready when the Pokes come to town. 

The talent of the Texas roster must be respected. However, much of the roster is unproven. Oklahoma State will have the advantage in the trenches. I project the Pokes to take care of business at home in front of the rowdy Boone Pickens fans that love to hate the Longhorns. 

The trip to Manhattan the week after spells trouble. The unproven linebacking core will have their hands full with RB Deuce Vaughn, one of the most dynamic running backs in the Big 12, save for Bijan Robinson of Texas. This game could be a stumbling block. 

Lastly, Bedlam. I am not pretending to be an unbiased journalist here and I am never going to take OU over Oklahoma State. However, when I try to default to logic, it tells me that the Sooners lost too much from a team that was already having a hard time finding its groove. I wish the game was in Stillwater but give me the Pokes in back to back Bedlam wins over the sooners. 

I project the pokes going 11-1 with the loss either coming to Kansas State, Baylor, or Texas. I can live with 10-2. We will be competing for a Big 12 Championship game and once again a chance to go to the college football playoff.

The Opener

The season opens Thursday against a Central Michigan team that most will only know as the team that killed the 2016 season before it even started. But this team is no slouch to open the season with. Fourth-year Head Coach Jim McElwain returns several key players from his 8-4 team that beat a Power 5 school in Washington State in the Sunbowl last year. 

Last year was one of the best years in school history for the Chippewas and they are looking to build on that success this year. Quarterback Daniel Richardson is a veteran of this team and runningback Lew Nichols III led the nation in total yards (1,848), yards per game (142.2), and carries (341) last season on his way to racking up a slew of post-season honors. This team leans on Nichols hard. This will be a great chance for the Oklahoma State defensive line and linebacking core to garner some early national buzz if they are able to hold the nation's reigning leading rusher to an impressive number. Put simply, the Chippewas are not in the same echelon as the Cowboys this year. Hopefully this game is over by halftime and fans can enjoy a showcase of unproven talent on both sides of the ball as guys compete to keep their spot on the depth chart or move up. 

And you can’t win 'em all if you don't win the first one. Go Pokes.